3 Main Bites From the CBBC

1 – Restrictions on movement and quarantine controls will slow economic activity through February

2 – Nonetheless, experience strongly suggests that tourism, hospitality and related industries such as luxury retail will be the areas most affected. Other sectors such as retail and manufacturing are likely to see a temporary v-shaped downturn

3 – Imports into the UK will equally experience delays which could cause problems for some manufacturers, especially those which rely on intermediate goods from China

Please see full article below, and practical advice posted by Tom Simpson from the China Britain Business Council ย – http://www.cbbc.org/news/covid-19-guide-for-british-business/

CBBC Insights – General

CBBC Outlook (Summary)

Download full article (English)

  • As the number of new cases continues to climb, the full scale of the outbreak remains to be seen
  • Restrictions on movement and quarantine controls will slow economic activity through February
  • Consensus predicts sharp short-term economic impact with recovery through the rest of 2020
Guidance for UK Businesses and Impact on China-UK Tradeย 
  • It is necessary first to caveat any predictions with strong warnings about the limitations of the data available and the risks involved in basing forecasts on the experience of SARS and other past emergencies. As its name indicates, the virus which China is currently fighting is novel, new and unprecedented. The outbreak will inevitably run a different course to what we have seen before.
  • Nonetheless, experience strongly suggests that tourism, hospitality and related industries such as luxury retail will be the areas most affected. Other sectors such as retail and manufacturing are likely to see a temporary v-shaped downturn followed — it must be hoped — by a subsequent fairly rapid recovery to normal levels of activity.
  • Chinese exports may experience a considerable drop, but with every possibility of recovering robustly soon after the virus abates. Imports into the UK will equally experience delays which could cause problems for some manufacturers, especially those which rely on intermediate goods from China.
  • Pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers could benefit from increasing demand. We could even see further regulatory changes to Chinaโ€™s healthcare and insurance system in the wake of this outbreak, which could offer new opportunities to UK healthcare companies.
  • A number of members have asked for advice on conference call service providers who continue to be able to operate in China. CBBC can offer no endorsement or guarantee in this respect. However we are happy to confirm that at the time of writing we continue successfully to use BizConf CSS (bss@bizconf.cn), Arkadin Teleconference and Intercall.
  • We advise all British companies to follow the advice published by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and local Chinese governments. Some provinces, such as Guangdong, have already published information for foreign nationals.
  • If you need further information or assistance regarding the regulations for specific provinces or cities, please contact enquiries@cbbc.org. We are monitoring the situation constantly and will do our best to help our members during this difficult period.

http://www.cbbc.org/news/covid-19-guide-for-british-business/